SCARCITY AND THE SEEDS OF CONFLICT: HOW CLIMATE CHANGE UNRAVELS STABILITY

 

Author :AM Tris Hardyanto

Climate change is not a slow-burning crisis—it is an accelerant. It doesn’t just raise temperatures; it inflames inequalities, deepens vulnerabilities, and destabilizes fragile systems. What begins as drought, displacement, or a failed harvest often spirals into political unrest, urban collapse, or even war. This article investigates the increasingly evident truth: in a world marked by injustice, scarcity is no longer just a resource issue—it is a trigger for conflict.

Executive Summary

Climate change is no longer a distant ecological challenge—it is a destabilising force that intersects with water scarcity, food insecurity, migration, energy collapse, and violent conflict. The article, The Web of Conflict – When Scarcity Sparks Crisis, explores how climate-driven resource stress amplifies existing vulnerabilities across fragile governance systems, urban centres, rural economies, and global supply chains.

Spanning five chapters, the analysis unpacks the systemic crises caused by drought in Syria, water conflicts in South Asia, land grabs in Ethiopia, and urban migration in Dhaka. It highlights how inequality, delay, and poor governance transform environmental scarcity into political upheaval and human suffering. Drawing on over 100 sources, the piece demonstrates that climate adaptation is not only a technical or environmental issue—it is a test of justice, leadership, and solidarity.

The article concludes by presenting integrated, equity-centred strategies that connect climate resilience with social inclusion, urban reform, communication reform, and global cooperation. In an era of cascading risks, it argues for nothing less than a paradigm shift: from reactive crisis response to proactive, inclusive peacebuilding through climate action.

 

1         Climate Stress and the Roots of Scarcity

1.1       Main Message

Climate change functions as a formidable stress multiplier, influencing various facets of our socioeconomic and political systems. Climate change particularly affects water resources, agriculture, and urban planning. For instance, water shortages and crop failures are not merely environmental issues; they lead to profound social repercussions, including community fractures, exacerbation of inequalities, and potential civil unrest. The transformation of ecological crises into human crises highlights the intricate linkages between environmental phenomena and societal stability. Research indicates that the contribution of fruits and vegetables to the water-scarcity footprint in diets often surpasses 30% in regions like the UK, underscoring the intersection of diet and water scarcity (Ridoutt et al., 2019). As elucidated in studies from the US and Australia, the relationship between drought-induced salinity and water scarcity further compounds these challenges, illustrating how multiple stressors can drive local and global insecurity (Thorslund et al., 2022). A comprehensive understanding of these interdependencies is essential for developing effective strategies to mitigate water scarcity and its widespread implications (Kummu et al., 2016).

Moreover, the multifaceted nature of water scarcity is evident in varying geographical contexts where underlying drivers include physical, economic, and institutional factors. For instance, studies have shown that water use efficiency and management practices are crucial in mitigating the impacts of climate variability on water resources. In regions faced with chronic drought conditions, both traditional wisdom and contemporary scientific practices are needed to tackle the complexities of water management (Li & Long, 2019). Various authors have stressed the need for integrated approaches to address not only water scarcity but also the socioeconomic dimensions arising from it, including health disparities and food security (Hassan & Maiwada, 2022).

 

1.2      Syria—Drought as a Conflict Multiplier

The drought that struck Syria between 2006 and 2011 serves as a critical example of how environmental stresses can exacerbate existing social and political vulnerabilities, resulting in widespread civil unrest and eventual conflict. Drought, characterised by severe water shortages and the failure of crops, particularly in the eastern regions of the country, triggered profound socioeconomic repercussions. Researchers estimate that approximately 1.5 million people fled rural areas, notably those dependent upon agriculture and pastoralism, leading to substantial migration toward overcrowded urban centres such as Aleppo and Damascus (Eklund et al., 2024). The rapid urbanisation exacerbated by the influx placed immense strain on already struggling urban infrastructure, contributing to heightened unemployment and social tension among both migrants and long-time residents (Kelley et al., 2015).

The political context of Syria during the period equipped the drought with its capacity as a conflict multiplier. Syria's governance framework was marked by weakened institutions and pervasive corruption, along with inadequate responses to the burgeoning agricultural crisis. Failing governance contributed significantly to rising discontent among the populace, which, when coupled with the impacts of the drought, acted as a catalyst for civil unrest. As noted in various studies, the failure to address environmental degradation and its socio-political ramifications can lead to heightened frustrations among an already strained population (Cheung et al., 2020). Thus, it became apparent that the environmental crisis not only served as a stress factor but also accelerated political instability by creating fertile ground for civil discord (DeJong et al., 2017).

Furthermore, the interplay between environmental challenges and empirical research demonstrates socioeconomic instability that identifies a significant correlation between climate-related stresses and the onset of conflict. Research has pointed out that during the catastrophic drought in Syria, the resultant rural dislocation was coupled with a severe economic downturn, further aggravating the political environment (Antoun et al., 2025). A complex relationship, delineated in studies analysing the role of climate change in the Fertile Crescent, underscores how such environmental factors can intertwine with governance failures to facilitate unrest (Kelley et al., 2015). In specific terms, these studies suggest that the direct impact of drought-induced migration patterns tends to amplify existing grievances related to governance, economic opportunities, and social equity (Abouzeid et al., 2021).

In examining the impacts of the drought more narrowly, one might observe that the severe consequences on agricultural production and water availability disrupted traditional livelihoods and social systems that had been in place for generations. In northeast Syria, where agriculture played a pivotal role in economic and social stability, the drought led to an acute food crisis that dramatically increased food prices (Tarnas et al., 2021). Escalation in prices further intensified socioeconomic insecurities, as families coping with diminished income from failed crops faced additional pressure from the inflated costs of basic goods. The combination of food insecurity, livelihood loss, and urban migration created a volatile environment, nurturing discontent that would later culminate in widespread protests against the government (Alkhalil et al., 2023).

When discussing the broader implications of the Syrian drought as a conflict multiplier, it is essential to consider the migration patterns it initiated. As families relocated to urban centres in search of better opportunities, they encountered existing social issues such as unemployment and inadequate public services, which left them even more embittered. Research indicates that these newly displaced populations often faced hostility from urban residents, which further aggravated civil tensions (Abou‐Saleh & Mobayed, 2013). Thus, the drought-induced migration does not merely represent a demographic shift but is closely linked to the socio-political fracturing that precipitated the civil war in 2011 (Eklund et al., 2024).

The social dynamics resulting from climate impacts are critical to understanding the broader narrative of the Syrian civil war. The influx of displaced populations altered social fabrics within cities, where overstretched resources and limited job opportunities led to an environment rife with competition and discord. Government inaction exacerbated the pressure cooker atmosphere and the apparent inability to provide services and support to both longstanding residents and new migrants. Studies have underscored that in times of acute environmental stresses, it is often the disenfranchised segments of society—those already marginalised by socioeconomic disparities—who face the brunt of the crisis, potentially leading them towards radicalisation or unrest as a form of expressing their desperation and grievances (Haar et al., 2018).

Analysing the Syrian experience through the lens of climate adaptation and resilience highlights the paramount importance of integrating environmental considerations into governance and planning frameworks. Evidence suggests that early climate adaptation strategies, improved public services, and community resilience programmes can play crucial roles in mitigating the adverse effects of climate stresses before they amplify socio-political tensions. In the case of Syria, the absence of effective governance and planning in the face of escalating climate pressures exacerbated the vulnerabilities of communities already grappling with weak economic conditions (Darvish et al., 2023).

To capture the essential relevance of the Syrian drought experience for broader climate-conflict discussions, it is vital to recognise the intricate interdependencies between environmental health, social cohesion, and political stability. The Syrian case demonstrates how the compounding effects of climate change, when juxtaposed against ineffective governance, can lead to profound humanitarian crises, emphasising the urgent need for proactive, integrated policy measures to build resilience in vulnerable communities (Ismail et al., 2016; Kallström et al., 2020). These lessons are not unique to Syria but resonate globally, where various nations face similar risks as climate change continues to exert pressure on socio-political stability.

The Syrian case is not isolated. Across the Sahel, for example, repeated droughts have led to widespread displacement, fuelling recruitment by militant groups. In Central Asia, shrinking rivers and outdated irrigation systems have triggered regional tensions. These examples highlight how diverse ecological pressures can yield similar patterns of instability, migration, and unrest, underscoring the need for integrated resilience across regions.

 

In conclusion, the intersection of environmental stressors and governance failures in Syria provides a poignant lesson in the complexity of contemporary conflicts shaped by climate change. As the Syrian conflict unfolds, it remains an essential study for understanding how climate shocks can act as both a symptom and a catalyst of deeper societal rifts. Addressing these multivariable factors requires recognition from policymakers and international organisations alike that, to avert future conflicts, policymakers must frame climate adaptation as an integral component of sustainable peacebuilding strategies.

1.3      From Denial to Delay

While the blatant denial of climate change is declining in mainstream discourse, a new narrative of delay has started to take its place. Discourse accepts the reality of climate change but promotes various strategies for deferring action, often by emphasising the costs associated with climate adaptation or mitigation. The present trend suggests a shift in strategy that can be detrimental to progress, especially as it can lead to inaction under the guise of complexity and uncertainty (Dolan et al., 2021). For instance, the emphasis on technical challenges in water management often distracts from urgent action needed to address immediate water scarcity issues exacerbated by climate change (Ioris, 2012). An equitable response requires that stakeholders recognise and challenge these delay tactics, fostering a climate of accountability and urgency.

Delaying actions to confront water scarcity has far-reaching consequences. By shifting responsibility to different actors—be it governments, communities, or industries—these narratives not only stall progress but also undermine collective actions essential for resilience (Degefu et al., 2018). Research indicates that clear communication about the immediate impacts of water scarcity and climate change can shift public perception and motivate engagement, emphasising the urgency for innovative policy interventions (She et al., 2024). Efforts to reduce water consumption and enhance conservation measures can be more effective when the messages resonate with public values and urgency.

 

1.4      Framing Climate as a Human Story

Effective communication about climate change must transcend abstract data and statistics, presenting the issue in a manner that resonates with people's lived experiences. The framing of climate change in human terms—focusing on health, employment, dignity, and food security—can galvanise action and foster a more inclusive dialogue (McNally et al., 2019). Fear and paralysis are often the result of alarmist rhetoric; however, narratives that highlight shared values and tangible outcomes are more likely to inspire engagement from diverse societal segments (Wang et al., 2024).

For example, the water scarcity footprints associated with various diets highlight both individual behaviour and broader systemic change. Studies have shown that diet modifications can have substantial implications for water usage, presenting an opportunity for public health campaigns to align dietary recommendations with water conservation goals (Ridoutt et al., 2019; Rose et al., 2022). Furthermore, local water scarcity can propagate through global supply chains, indicating that individual choices matter within larger systemic contexts (Wang et al., 2024). By portraying the significance of water conservation as a shared societal concern, communities can coalesce around solutions that address immediate water challenges while also contributing to broader environmental sustainability (Graham et al., 2020).

Greater emotional engagement is necessary to build a robust movement for climate action. Establishing connections between climate impacts and everyday realities can encourage proactive behaviours, ensuring that communities feel empowered rather than overwhelmed by the looming threats of climate change (Dahri et al., 2021). The latest research suggests that localised, community-oriented strategies that recognise vulnerable populations are crucial in fostering resilience against climate-related stressors, including water scarcity (Hietala et al., 2023). approach underscores the importance of incorporating diverse narratives and experiences in climate discourse, thereby enriching the conversation and expanding the coalition for action.

Ultimately, reframing the climate narrative is not merely an academic exercise but a vital strategy for spurring real progress against water scarcity and the myriad human issues it engenders. As emphasised in multiple studies, a reframed narrative acknowledges the intersectionality of environmental action with socioeconomic realities, thereby inviting broader public and political engagement (Degefu et al., 2018; Dolan et al., 2021; Wang et al., 2024). Each study contributes crucial perspectives that enrich our understanding of the complexities surrounding climate change and its implications for water scarcity, ultimately empowering stakeholders to enact meaningful change.

 

2        Conflict Over Water, Land, and Food

2.1      Water Wars and Displacement

In regions characterised by socio-political fragility, such as the Middle East and South Asia, dwindling water resources serve as both a pressure point for existing tensions and a catalyst for new conflicts. Shared rivers and aquifers become increasingly politicised under conditions of scarcity, frequently triggering disputes over access and rights. Recent analyses underscore that competition over water resources can exacerbate inter-ethnic tensions and provoke violence, particularly in areas where governance is weak and institutions are unable to manage shared resources equitably (Jafry, 2016). As water shortages become more pronounced due to climate change and increasing population pressures, neighbouring communities are at risk of heightened friction, which can lead to armed conflict as demonstrated in places like the Nile Basin and the Tigris-Euphrates region (Bajwa, 2023).

Moreover, drought-induced migration poses significant risks, as drought and scarcity compel families to leave their homes in search of water and food security. Movement can strain already burdened urban centres and alter demographic dynamics, sometimes inciting xenophobic sentiments in host communities (Cheng, 2016). A case study from Southern Iraq illustrates how internal displacement due to water scarcity has intensified social grievances, laying the groundwork for unrest (Bajwa, 2023). Thus, there is an interplay between water scarcity and governance. Analysts must consider migration in any comprehensive assessment of environmental conflict dynamics. Additionally, the historical context reveals that water rights disputes have historically led to violent confrontations, making challenges a defining aspect of future socio-political landscapes.

2.2      India-Pakistan – Indus Water Conflict

The Indus River, a critical water source for both India and Pakistan, is governed by the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). However, ongoing climate change impacts—specifically reduced glacial melt and altered seasonal flow patterns—have intensified the vulnerabilities of both nations regarding water security. Reports indicate that India's construction of dams upstream has raised serious concerns for Pakistan regarding potential treaty violations and water availability, leading to growing diplomatic tensions and mutual accusations between the two nuclear-armed states (Munir et al., 2021; Imran, 2021). Climate-induced alterations in river patterns threaten agricultural productivity for millions relying on these waters and exacerbate fears of potential conflicts over water resources (Aslam, 2022; Mehsud et al., 2020).

The implications of water conflict extend beyond agricultural concerns; they touch upon the geopolitical stability of the South Asian region. Studies have suggested that exacerbated climate variability could transform diplomatic disputes into violent conflicts over shared water resources (Mehsud et al., 2020). Dynamic illustrates the necessity for robust climate-resilient treaties and cooperative governance over transboundary rivers. As the situation evolves, the need for collaborative strategies that prioritise sustainable use and equitable sharing of water resources becomes urgent (Munawar, 2018; Imran, 2021). Poor management of rising competition for diminishing water supplies could lead to significant instability and conflict in an already fraught regional landscape.

Moreover, the historical context underscores that water disputes deeply interweave tensions among affected communities and the broader political landscape of India and Pakistan. The colonial legacy of irrigation projects established during British rule has further complicated contemporary water-sharing arrangements, as both nations continue to grapple with historical grievances (Imran, 2021; Hassan, 2023). An analysis of the Indus water disputes reveals that underlying power imbalances and historical animosities fuel perceptions of mistrust and competition, making it challenging to resolve these water-related conflicts (Haines, 2013; Mukhopadhyay, 2024). Ambiguities in the interpretation of the IWT and stakeholders' particular debate on infrastructure development on the western rivers, which Pakistan relies on, have also been a recurrent source of friction (Munir et al., 2021; Imran, 2021).

In addressing the impacts of the Indus Water Conflict, it is essential to recognise its profound effects on both nations' agricultural sectors. With millions dependent on these rivers for their livelihoods, the implications of climate change and water management decisions are dire. Reports suggest that Pakistan, as a downstream riparian state, faces acute vulnerabilities to any modifications in water flow orchestrated by upstream dams in India, potentially leading to agricultural shortfalls and further economic distress (Impiani, 2019; Imran, 2021). The intersection of water, agriculture, and climate change amplifies concerns regarding food security, which could incite social unrest and escalate political tensions across both nations.

Furthermore, studies consulting the Hydro-Hegemony Framework argue that India's superior position as an upstream power significantly affects its interactions with Pakistan regarding water management, pointing to a potential for future negotiations that proactively address these dynamics (Bakhtiar et al., 2023; Imran, 2021). Without a genuine commitment to equitable resource management that includes transparency and cooperative dialogue, the prospects for improved bilateral relations remain bleak. Innovative solutions that harness joint governance while integrating climate adaptations into water-sharing agreements are paramount in mitigating future conflicts (Hassan, 2023; Kadir, 2019).

The urgency to reformulate the IWT in light of climate change and various scholars underscores increased water scarcity, who emphasise the importance of joint management of transboundary water resources in a warming world (Mehsud et al., 2020). Collaborative frameworks should not only encompass equitable access to water but also incorporate provisions for climate resilience that anticipate future challenges while upholding the rights of all riparian states (Kadir, 2019). Strong leadership and trust-building measures from both sides are vital to navigate the complexities inherent in the current political climate.

In essence, the Indus Water Conflict serves as a crucial case study illustrating the multifaceted relationships between climate change, water security, and international diplomacy. The intertwining of agricultural sustainability and water disputes has wide-reaching implications for regional stability, making it evident that collaborative governance approaches and climate-resilient treaties are essential to avert future conflicts. As both nations grapple with the existential challenges posed by climate change, stakeholders must build the path forward on mutual understanding, comprehensive dialogue, and shared commitments to sustainable hydrology. 

2.3       Land Degradation and Inequity

Climate-linked land degradation significantly contributes to the displacement of rural populations while simultaneously exacerbating existing inequalities. As fertile land becomes increasingly scarce due to climate change, such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, and salinisation, local communities often find themselves dispossessed at the hands of elites or corporations who utilise legal and corrupt means to gain control over prime agricultural areas (Bailey, 2017; Periyasamy, 2019). The trend of land grabbing has intensified in many developing countries, leaving local farmers landless and powerless, a situation that harms their livelihoods and inflicts deep social grievances that can ignite protests or insurgency (Said et al., 2023; Singh et al., 2024).

Research highlights that communities that have historically depended on agriculture face unique vulnerabilities when climate change intensifies land degradation. As these grassroots populations lose their land, they experience profound economic and social disempowerment (Mwalukasa, 2013). The rise in land inequities catalysed by climate-related events and corporate interests further alienates these communities from necessary resources, worsening their standings in the global socioeconomic hierarchy. Addressing land degradation and its social implications must therefore be central to climate strategies that seek to promote environmental justice and equity (Devi et al., 2023). Furthermore, policymakers must restructure governance frameworks to protect the rights of local populations while ensuring sustainable land management practices (Umetsu & Miura, 2023). 

2.4      Ethiopia – Gambela Land Grabs

In Ethiopia's Gambela region, the phenomenon of land grabbing is profoundly affecting the livelihoods of indigenous communities. Since the early 2000s, the government has leased vast tracts of land to foreign investors under agricultural schemes. These investments have frequently been implemented with little consultation or compensation for local populations who depend on these lands for their survival and cultural identity (Teklemariam et al., 2017; Liao et al., 2020). Evidence suggests that the ongoing climate instability, characterised by erratic rainfall and variable growing seasons, has further decreased land fertility in Gambela, creating a dual crisis of environmental degradation and socioeconomic disempowerment (Zecca & D'Errico, 2021).

The impacts of these land grabs on indigenous communities are multifaceted. Displacement is one of the most immediate consequences. These actions often dismantle traditional livelihoods and undermine cultural identities(Shete, 2020). Communities that previously thrived on subsistence agriculture have seen their access to fertile land substantially restricted, leading to food insecurity and economic instability. Research confirms that the influx of large-scale agricultural projects has provoked significant social tensions and conflicts over land rights, illustrating the precarious balance between development aspirations and the preservation of local rights (Woldeamanuel, 2019). These conflicts highlight the urgent need for governance frameworks that respect land rights and incorporate the voices of local communities in decision-making processes.

Moreover, the combination of these socioeconomic pressures with climate stress intensifies the risk of violence and long-term instability in the region. Empirical studies have shown that marginalisation and displacement can lead to increased grievances among affected communities, creating an environment ripe for conflict (Kedir et al., 2016). As crop production falters due to both climate change and expropriation of land, competition for diminishing resources escalates, potentially igniting violence among displaced communities and local authorities. The scenario underlines the complex relationship between climate vulnerability and displacement, and policymakers must address rights over land to prevent the deterioration of social cohesion and stability.  (Rulli et al., 2013).

The situation in Gambela serves as a poignant reflection of the broader trends observed in many developing nations where vulnerable populations find themselves at the forefront of the global land-grabbing phenomenon. Numerous studies have pointed out that land grabbing often produces adverse social and environmental consequences, particularly when investments prioritise profit over local welfare (Shitaye et al., 2018). The notion of land justice emerges strongly from these circumstances, where equitable land-use policies and inclusive development strategies are not merely desirable but essential for fostering resilience under climate pressures (Zecca & D'Errico, 2021).

Furthermore, scholars argue for the necessity of clear legal frameworks that protect local land rights and promote participation in decision-making relating to land acquisition (Shete, 2020). Current policies often favour foreign investment over the rights of indigenous communities, leading to significant challenges related to social equity and justice. Observations in the region have revealed a consistent marginalisation of local populations in favour of corporate interests, which prevails despite the wealth of knowledge and practices indigenous communities possess regarding land management and sustainability (Teklemariam et al., 2017; Shete, 2020).

The Gambela case accentuates the urgent need to rethink agricultural strategies in Ethiopia, and we must anchor them in principles of justice and sustainability to ensure long-term impact that will not exacerbate the current vulnerabilities of agricultural communities. Engaging in participatory governance that involves those most affected by land grabs can foster more equitable development outcomes and recognise the intrinsic connection between communities and their land (Liao et al., 2020; Rulli et al., 2013).

In conclusion, the land grabs in Gambela exemplify the critical intersectionality of climate vulnerability, displacement, and land rights, emphasising that a multidimensional approach is essential to address the inequities facing indigenous communities. A comprehensive strategy aimed at achieving land justice involves recognising the rights of local populations, adapting agricultural practices to climate realities, and ensuring governance frameworks that preempt conflict. Only through such an integrated approach can Ethiopia hope to mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change while securing the livelihoods and rights of its most vulnerable populations. 

2.5      Food System Breakdown and Market Shocks

The link between extreme weather events and food system breakdown is palpable, as crop failures due to climate change lead to diminished food availability and soaring prices. These conditions create a precarious landscape for low-income communities, which often face the brunt of food shortages due to their limited purchasing power (Martin et al., 2024; Drastig et al., 2012). Historical events, such as the food price riots prior to the Arab Spring, illustrate the volatile relationship between food security and social stability. The situation in Tunisia, for example, demonstrated that surging food prices can lead to widespread civil unrest when people are unable to meet their basic needs (Jain & Mazhar, 2024).

Empirical data underscores the notion that climate-induced food shortages are likely to trigger political instability, particularly in regions with significant pre-existing vulnerabilities (Sultana, 2021). Agricultural systems that rely heavily on rainfed irrigation are especially susceptible to market shocks from climate impacts, resulting in compounded financial stresses for farming communities (Khajuria & Ravindranath, 2012). Consequently, as policy discussions unfold around food security, it is essential to recognise the multifaceted risks that climate change poses to agricultural systems and food prices across the globe. Addressing these issues proactively through resilient agricultural practices and policies can mitigate these risks and foster more stable food systems (Siddiqui et al., 2022). 

2.6      Horn of Africa—2022 Drought

In 2022, the Horn of Africa experienced a severe multi-season drought that significantly impacted Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. The drought was characterised by prolonged dry spells and erratic rainfall patterns, which led to widespread crop failures and critical water shortages across the region (Marthews et al., 2019). Such adverse climatic conditions, exacerbated by underlying governance issues and inadequate infrastructure, precipitated a humanitarian crisis of significant scale. Millions of individuals were pushed into famine conditions, leading to a humanitarian emergency that overwhelmed existing aid responses (Cerdà-Bautista et al., 2023).

The drought's impacts were starkly visible in the agricultural and pastoral societies that characterise the Horn of Africa. Traditional livelihoods were decimated as livestock died in large numbers and crop yields diminished, leading to significant displacement as communities sought to escape the dire conditions (Senay et al., 2023). The combination of resource scarcity and displacement has fuelled localised conflicts over water and arable land, aggravating tensions in already vulnerable areas. The situation reflects research demonstrating that extreme weather events can exacerbate existing socioeconomic disparities and tensions, potentially leading to violent confrontations among different groups competing for diminishing resources (Weezel, 2019; Alasow et al., 2024).

Scientists and researchers have identified climate change as a key driver behind the growing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the Horn of Africa. Research links human-induced climate change to the intensification of droughts, highlighting how rising temperatures and experts expect altered precipitation patterns to worsen conditions in already vulnerable regions (Tafelmeyer et al., 2024). The scenario of recurrent droughts indicates a broader systemic crisis where climate, governance, and social stability intersect precariously. Studies suggest that failures to address the multifaceted impacts of climate stress can increase susceptibility to conflict and humanitarian emergencies (Usman & Nichol, 2018).

Pre-existing vulnerabilities and systemic deficiencies critically hampered the humanitarian response to the 2022 drought in governance. Reports suggest that the capacity of aid organisations and governments to mobilise and allocate resources effectively was severely challenged by the scale of the crisis (Walker et al., 2022). Early warning systems, essential for anticipating drought impacts, were often inadequately developed, leading to a rapid decline into famine conditions (West et al., 2024). The pressing need for enhanced drought resilience measures and improved regional cooperation emerged as crucial lessons from the 2022 crisis, presenting a pathway for more effective future responses.

In terms of regional cooperation, the complex interplay between the affected nations underscores the necessity for collaborative frameworks for managing shared resources and addressing the impacts of climate change. Efforts aimed at fostering regional cooperation in water and food security management are vital to mitigate future drought impacts and enhance resilience across borders. Such systemic approaches could include developing integrated water resource management strategies that take into account the shared nature of hydrological resources among Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya (Vogels et al., 2019).

These shocks did not remain local. Global grain prices surged, highlighting how regional droughts in food-exporting countries like Ethiopia or Kenya can disrupt supply chains worldwide. In a globalised food system, local climate breakdowns can quickly ripple through markets, worsening hunger and social unrest in far-off regions.

The Horn of Africa's 2022 drought highlights a critical opportunity for advancing regional agendas focused on climate resilience, resource management, and humanitarian preparedness. By prioritising inclusive policies that engage local communities in decision-making processes, governments can better target interventions that meet the needs of vulnerable populations (Cerdà-Bautista et al., 2023). Furthermore, incorporating climate-risk assessments into planning processes may provide the necessary tools to enhance adaptive capacity and reduce vulnerabilities to future shocks (Measho et al., 2021).

In conclusion, the catastrophic drought of 2022 in the Horn of Africa serves as a stark reminder of the cascading crises that may arise from recurrent climatic extremes, particularly in vulnerable regions. Moving forward, it is imperative that all stakeholders—governments, humanitarian organisations, and local communities—collaborate effectively to build drought resilience and mitigate the impacts of climate change. The lessons learnt from the drought crisis must inform future strategies, better equipping the region to face the challenges posed by a changing climate and ensuring that such tragedies do not recur. 

2.7       Agricultural Justice and Inequality

Existing food and farm policies often disproportionately favour large agricultural producers, sidelining smallholders and marginalised communities, particularly women and Indigenous farmers. Discrepancy can exacerbate inequities in resource allocation and access to market opportunities, leaving smaller farms vulnerable to climate impacts (Islam et al., 2015; Yang et al., 2022). The focus on large-scale, industrial agriculture enhances the vulnerability of smallholders, who may lack the technological resources to adapt to changing climate conditions (Bajwa, 2023). In many developing countries, smallholder farmers constitute a significant portion of the agricultural workforce, yet their voices and needs are frequently overlooked in policy discussions (Potenko & Emelianov, 2018).

To ensure a just food system, it is essential to address these institutional biases by implementing policies that consider the needs of all stakeholders, particularly those impacted by climate injustice (Patle & Libang, 2014). As advocated by various scholars, promoting equitable access to resources, fair pricing structures, and legal protections for land and labour rights is crucial in creating a more inclusive agricultural landscape (Sabola, 2023). Moreover, strategies designed to enhance resilience must focus on empowering smallholder farmers through education, access to technology, financial support, and market opportunities (Timmermann, 2021). Transitioning to a more equitable and resilient agricultural framework is imperative for maintaining food security and fostering stable communities in an era of climate uncertainty.

In summary, the intertwined challenges of water scarcity, land degradation, food system shocks, and social inequity present a complex array of risks exacerbated by climate change. Understanding these dynamics is vital for formulating effective policy responses that not only address the immediate environmental crises but also alleviate the underlying social injustices. Transformative approaches that centre on environmental sustainability and social equity can lead to resilient communities capable of navigating the uncertainties posed by climate change.

 

3        Cities, Livelihoods, and the Fragile Infrastructure of Survival

3.1      Urban Overload and Climate Migration

The surge in climate-driven displacement is flooding cities with new residents who are fleeing adverse environmental conditions, such as extreme droughts, flooding, and rising sea levels. Migration often overwhelms urban areas that already struggle with inadequate housing, sanitation, and health services. As documented in research on climate-induced migration, cities across the globe are becoming hotspots where informal settlements are rapidly expanding, usually in flood-prone or heat-vulnerable areas (Mittal et al., 2024). creates precarious living conditions and increases the risk of disease outbreaks and violence, as competition for scarce resources intensifies (Bonifacio, 2023).

Such migrations are particularly poignant in the context of the Horn of Africa, where recurring droughts have led to significant urban migration. Climate shocks have displaced an estimated 38 million people, exacerbated public health crises linked to overcrowded living conditions (Cerdà-Bautista et al., 2023). The precarious nature of these informal settlements not only highlights existing vulnerabilities but also raises questions about the capacity of urban infrastructure to cope with climate impacts. As noted in the literature, many of these informal settlers lack access to safe water and sanitation facilities, making them more susceptible to diseases and contributing to degraded health outcomes (Marthews et al., 2019).

Further exacerbating these urban crises is the reality that unplanned migration can lead to the emergence of social tensions, often delineated along ethnic lines. In regions where historical grievances coexist, increased migration can fuel conflicts as communities vie for limited resources (Mittal et al., 2024). The relationship between urbanisation and climate migration illustrates a critical need for integrated urban planning and resilient infrastructure that takes into account the potential impacts of climate change (Weezel, 2019). 

3.2      Dhaka, Bangladesh—Climate Urban Migration

Rising sea levels and increased frequency of cyclones in coastal Bangladesh have rapidly displaced millions of individuals, many of whom relocate to Dhaka, the capital city. The phenomenon of climate migration is significant, as it imposes substantial pressures on a city already grappling with overpopulation and inadequate infrastructure. The influx of new residents strains Dhaka's housing, water supply, sanitation, and health services, resulting in the rapid proliferation of informal settlements in vulnerable areas (Parvin & Shaw, 2011; Miklian & Hoelscher, 2020). These settlements frequently lack sufficient sanitation facilities and other essential services, increasing the inhabitants' exposure to health hazards and leading to rising urban poverty (Swapan et al., 2017; Medimorec, 2013).

The impacts of climate migration on Dhaka's infrastructure are profound. As the city struggles to accommodate the wave of newcomers, the tension between resource availability and demand intensifies. The resultant overcrowding not only threatens public health due to unsanitary conditions but also escalates the risk of social conflicts as competition for resources inevitably heightens (Miklian & Hoelscher, 2020; Zaman, 2014). More critically, these informal settlements are often located in flood-prone or heat-vulnerable areas, putting residents at continuous risk of climate-induced disasters, which further limits their prospects for improving their livelihoods (Shourav et al., 2016).

Research underscores that Dhaka is among the most climate-vulnerable cities globally, facing increasing hazards due to its geographical location and sociopolitical landscape. Vulnerable populations, particularly those newly arrived from rural regions devastated by climate-related events, find themselves economically marginalised and socially excluded from essential urban services (Miklian & Hoelscher, 2020; Mortoja & Yiğitcanlar, 2020). Moreover, marginalisation deepens existing inequalities, as the poorest residents struggle to access employment opportunities and basic amenities (Roy et al., 2024).

The relevance of the situation extends beyond individual hardship and speaks to broader urban development and climate resilience challenges. It exemplifies how climate migration can exacerbate urban crises, particularly when city planning fails to anticipate or accommodate population shifts. As noted by various scholars, cities like Dhaka must evolve into centres of climate resilience rather than dynamics that bottleneck social stress and conflict (Ibáñez et al., 2022). Sustainable urban planning must prioritise adaptive strategies, including the incorporation of climate data into urban policies and planning frameworks, to mitigate the unfolding crises (Swapan et al., 2017; Ahmed et al., 2014).

Furthermore, as indicated in the prepared references, robust planning must integrate comprehensive risk assessment and improve basic service delivery to vulnerable populations, focusing on their unique needs. Access to clean water, waste management, housing security, and healthcare services must become focal points in the development agenda to build resilience in urban environments facing climate-induced challenges (Ibáñez et al., 2022; Miklian & Hoelscher, 2020; Roy et al., 2024).

In conclusion, the dynamic of climate migration into Dhaka underscores the urgent need for integrated urban resilience strategies that address not only climate change impacts but also social inequalities and infrastructural deficits. By addressing the factors that contribute to vulnerability and marginalisation, policymakers can help secure a more sustainable future for both migrants and the existing population in Dhaka. 

3.2. Energy Poverty and Heat Inequity

The demand for electricity surges during heat waves, particularly in urban areas where the use of cooling systems becomes essential. However, energy systems frequently fail to meet the needs of the poor, who lack access to consistent power supplies or the financial means to afford cooling services. The phenomenon, referred to as energy poverty, has evolved into a public health crisis, exacerbating vulnerabilities, particularly in urban slums and underfunded rural areas (West et al., 2024).

Research indicates that during extreme heat events, the population that suffers the most includes those living in informal settlements, which often lack basic infrastructure and reliable connections to energy systems. Rising temperatures acutely impact the health of the poor, increasing their risk of illness and death, who are at greater risk for heat-related illnesses but do not possess the necessary resources to mitigate these impacts (Sangeetha & Usha, 2022). The situation highlights the imperative for policies aiming to expand access to affordable and sustainable energy solutions as part of broader climate adaptation strategies (Walker et al., 2022).

Empirical studies emphasise that the inequity of energy access is not merely an issue of supply but one of structural inequities deeply entwined within societal frameworks. Vulnerable populations often face compounded disadvantages, which lead to significant barriers in accessing energy resources. The situation calls for a reevaluation of energy distribution policies to ensure equitable access while addressing the urgent demands of climate resilience (Measho et al., 2021).

3.3      South Africa – 2021 Energy Crisis 

In 2021, ageing coal infrastructure triggered a significant energy crisis in South Africa, causing nationwide blackouts, inadequate energy planning and the impacts of climate-related stresses. The reliance on coal, coupled with insufficient investment in renewable energy sources and grid upgrades, contributed to an unstable power supply that often could not meet the increasing electricity demands, particularly during extreme weather events such as heat waves (Bohlmann & Inglesi‐Lotz, 2021). The crisis further highlights the vulnerabilities inherent in South Africa's energy landscape. 

The blackouts disproportionately affected low-income communities, which typically lack the resources for generators or backup power systems. As a result, these populations bore the brunt of the crisis, experiencing disruptions to essential services, including health care and household activities (Wright et al., 2024; Kanosvamhira, 2024). Vulnerable residents in township areas faced additional hardships due to the energy crisis, which deepened the existing inequalities related to access to energy and essential services. The situation elucidated significant gaps in energy justice, demonstrating how systemic inequalities can exacerbate the impact of climate stress on disadvantaged populations (Xaba, 2023). 

Research indicates that such rolling blackouts have far-reaching implications for public health, especially in a context where healthcare facilities rely heavily on consistent electricity for the adequate provision of care (Wright et al., 2024). The interruptions can lead to delayed medical services and increased risks associated with life-saving technologies. Furthermore, the economic implications of the blackouts are vast, as small businesses that operate within informal sectors may struggle to maintain productivity under these conditions (Bohlmann & Inglesi‐Lotz, 2021). 

The relevance of the 2021 energy crisis in South Africa serves as a stark example of how energy transitions must focus on addressing inequality while simultaneously building resilience against climate impacts. Future energy systems must be inclusive, ensuring reliable access for all communities, especially the marginalised (Xaba, 2023; Dorrington & Schulz‐Herzenberg, 2024). The energy challenges experienced during this period highlighted the necessity for a paradigm shift toward sustainable energy solutions that incorporate renewable resources and engage vulnerable populations in energy planning efforts. 

To develop a more resilient energy future, South Africa must embrace comprehensive policies that address the structural barriers preventing equitable access to electricity while responding to the urgent need for sustainability. Successful transitions must include investments in decentralised energy systems, as well as policies explicitly incorporating social equity considerations into energy governance frameworks, thereby aiming to close the access gaps exacerbated by systemic inequality (Xaba, 2023). 

Additionally, the government and relevant stakeholders must engage with local communities to identify specific energy needs and tailor responses accordingly. Investment in renewable energy technologies not only assists in reducing reliance on fossil fuels but also offers opportunities for job creation and economic development in communities previously sidelined by energy policies (Xaba, 2023).

Policies supporting just energy transitions—like decentralised solar grids or public cooling shelters—can provide affordable, low-emission energy for the most affected populations, reducing health impacts and inequality during heatwaves.

In summary, the 2021 energy crisis in South Africa illustrates a critical intersection between energy, public health, and social justice. As the country contemplates its future energy strategy, new policies must prioritise inclusivity, sustainability, and resilience against climate change to safeguard the well-being of its most vulnerable populations.

3.4      Labour Market Disruption

The multifaceted effects of climate change are increasingly disrupting entire industries, notably agriculture, tourism, and fisheries. The impacts of extreme weather events and shifting climate patterns have resulted in crop failures, decreased yields, and significant job losses, particularly for those engaged in informal or seasonal work (Ngongolo & Gayo, 2024). Disruption not only exacerbates economic instability but also places an immense strain on labour markets as millions face economic displacement in the wake of climate shocks (Baptista et al., 2024).

Informal workers, who often lack the protection and benefits afforded to formally employed individuals, are the first casualties of climate-induced job losses. A segment of the labour force is typically characterised by precarious employment, making them particularly vulnerable to economic turbulence. Furthermore, the loss of livelihoods in key economic sectors necessitates urgent interventions that focus on providing support systems and job transition pathways for affected workers (Sangeetha & Usha, 2022; Feriga et al., 2024).

In light of the current challenges, labour market policies must adapt to address the shifting paradigms that climate change imposes on employment dynamics. Strategies should include skills development initiatives and the creation of social safety nets to safeguard vulnerable populations against the economic upheaval brought about by environmental changes (Baptista et al., 2024).

3.5      Fiji – Tourism Collapse and Cyclones

Fiji's economy heavily relies on tourism. The dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and economic disruption dramatically impacted the system, and multiple severe cyclones in 2021. The COVID-19 lockdowns led to unprecedented shutdowns in tourism, accounting for around 35.3 per cent of Fiji's GDP prior to the pandemic (Shiiba et al., 2023). During this period, Fijian tourism operators faced massive unemployment and financial losses, further exacerbated by the destruction caused by Cyclone Yasa and other severe cyclones that struck the archipelago, damaging infrastructure and livelihoods.

The interplay of pandemic-induced tourism collapse and the disruption from cyclones illustrated the vulnerabilities of economies that are heavily dependent on a single sector. The cyclones devastated physical infrastructure and led to significant displacement and disruption of communities that were already under tremendous economic stress. Such dual crises expose the precariousness of economies reliant on climate-sensitive sectors, highlighting their susceptibility to both environmental and external shocks. As communities struggled to recover from natural disasters while navigating the economic fallout from the pandemic, the situation underscored severe gaps in resilience and preparedness within the tourism sector.

As a result of the cyclones and pandemic-induced shutdowns, Low-income populations experienced particularly pronounced socioeconomic repercussions. Many individuals in tourism-reliant communities faced joblessness and a lack of support, creating a fertile ground for increased inequalities. The lack of immediate recovery plans exacerbated vulnerabilities, making it difficult for these communities to sustain their livelihoods and adapt to changing conditions. The situation in Fiji serves as a salient reminder of how coupling economic reliance on climate-sensitive sectors with climatic hazards can lead to cascading crises.

Fiji's experiences reveal significant lessons about the implications of climate change on tourism-dependent economies. The urgent need for economic diversification emerges as a critical strategy to mitigate such risks. Sustainable tourism practices, combined with diversified economic activities, can enhance overall resilience against future shocks. Additionally, building social safety nets and implementing disaster recovery frameworks can assist those most affected by these compounded crises. Establishing these support systems is crucial not only for immediate recovery but also for reducing future vulnerability to climate impacts.

Moreover, the 2021 crises expose the necessity of developing climate-resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding severe weather events while ensuring more reliable operations within the tourism sector (Scott, 2021). Investments in renewable energy and sustainable technologies may alleviate some pressures on infrastructure and align with global environmental goals. Such initiatives would contribute to greater resilience and facilitate a transition to a more sustainable tourism model that prioritises environmental stewardship alongside economic stability.

In essence, Fiji's tourism collapse and the associated cyclone impacts exemplify the compounding nature of crises in climate-sensitive economies. The urgency for strategic planning that incorporates economic diversification, social safety nets, and resilient infrastructure is paramount to ensuring sustainable growth and protection against future disruptions. Through proactive measures, Fiji can work towards safeguarding its valuable tourism sector while enhancing the resilience of its communities amidst the ongoing challenges of climate change (Dube, 2024; Atasoy & Atasoy, 2020).

To avoid such cascading economic shocks, policy interventions must include reskilling programmes, microloans for climate-resilient businesses, and investment in green infrastructure that creates local employment while reducing vulnerability to tourism volatility. 

3.6      The Unseen Workforce Crisis

Informal workers, migrants, and women are disproportionately affected by the labour disruptions resulting from climate change. Lacking contracts or protections, these groups are often the first to experience job losses and the last to be reinstated during recovery periods (Feriga et al., 2024; Akrofi et al., 2021). Therefore, climate policies must actively incorporate considerations for fair labour transitions and equitable social safety nets to prevent exacerbating existing inequalities.

Many studies indicate that women, particularly those who engage in informal work, face distinct challenges that affect their livelihoods in the context of climate change. They often possess less access to resources and opportunities for recovery than their male counterparts, highlighting the need for gender-sensitive labour market policies that foster resilience (Kamboj & Verma, 2024; Jain et al., 2022). Similarly, social safety nets must be inclusive and target those in precarious employment situations, recognising that climate change's impacts disproportionately extend to marginalised populations and informal sectors (Bonifacio, 2023).

Overall, addressing the profound vulnerabilities faced by informal workers, Climate discussions frequently overlook these communities, which is critical for promoting equity and enhancing livelihood resilience. Policies that focus on creating supportive work environments and inclusive growth strategies can help ensure that the labour market does not leave the most vulnerable behind as climate impacts intensify (Arkhipova, 2021; Ibáñez et al., 2022).

In summary, the intertwined challenges of urban overload, energy poverty, labour market disruption, and workforce inequities demand comprehensive and integrated approaches to resilience. Addressing these highlights the necessity for forward-thinking policies that recognise the complexities of climate adaptation while safeguarding the livelihoods of those in the most precarious situations.

 

4         Justice, Policy, and the Politics of Delay

4.1      Global Adaptation Gaps and Colonial Echoes

Countries with fewer resources disproportionately feel the impact of climate change, which have contributed the least to its causes, reflecting deep-rooted historical imbalances and ongoing colonial echoes in global climate justice dialogues. Wealthier nations, often responsible for the majority of carbon emissions, have the financial and infrastructural capabilities to adapt to climate impacts, whereas poorer nations struggle with limited resources and capacity (Shue, 2022). Disparity underscores the moral imperative for climate justice, which argues that those who have incurred minimal responsibility for climate change should not bear its worst consequences. As articulated in various studies, the situation reveals a gross injustice that necessitates equitable distribution of adaptation aids and technological support to marginalised nations (Huttunen, 2024).

The importance of addressing these adaptation gaps is further highlighted by examining historical contexts where colonial exploitation left many nations with weakened socioeconomic structures and vulnerable environments sensitive to climate impacts. The legacy of colonialism continues to manifest in modern climate policies, often sidelining the needs of those countries most affected by ecological degradation and resource extraction (Odwori, 2022). Thus, the fight for climate justice must also encompass a reclamation of agency for these nations, enabling them to negotiate the terms of their adaptation in a manner that fosters equitable and sustainable development.

4.2      Mozambique – Post-Cyclone Idai Recovery

In March 2019, Cyclone Idai struck Mozambique, leading to extensive flooding, significant infrastructural damage, and the displacement of thousands of people. Despite the passage of time since the catastrophic event, the recovery processes still reveal global inequalities within disaster finance and response systems that remain relevant today. The cyclone created monumental challenges that underscored both the immediate humanitarian needs and the long-term requirements for sustainable recovery strategies (Ndapassoa, 2023; Vickers & Enos-Edu, 2019).

The aftermath of Cyclone Idai illustrated a stark reality: aid responses were often slow and unequal, disproportionately affecting rural and impoverished communities that lacked adequate support compared to more urbanised areas. Reports indicate that aid agencies primarily directed immediate humanitarian assistance toward larger towns and cities, many rural populations were left without access to vital resources and assistance during critical recovery periods ("Eight months after Idai: Chronology of displacement, humanitarian needs and challenges going forward", 2019) (Lequechane et al., 2020). disparity exposed systemic inequities in disaster finance, revealing that funding often prioritises more visible or politically influential areas while neglecting the needs of the most vulnerable (Vickers & Enos-Edu, 2019).

Additionally, Local weaknesses in response systems intensified the challenges faced during the recovery process. Mozambique's ongoing issues of economic volatility and poverty have hampered the country's capacity to manage the aftermath of the cyclone effectively. Global disparities in disaster recovery systems were evident in the sluggish pace of aid distribution, emphasising the need for reform within both national and international response frameworks (Nyahunda et al., 2020). Lessons learnt from Mozambique's experience can inform discussions about equitable climate finance that focus on responsiveness and adaptation in nations consistently facing climate-related disasters (Lequechane et al., 2020).

Mozambique's post-cyclone recovery serves as a critical case study in the conversation regarding the necessity for fair and resilient disaster recovery policies. Includes the vital need for increased commitment to climate-resilient infrastructure capable of withstanding future disasters and establishing financial models that ensure the sustainability of recovery efforts in vulnerable communities (Jacobs & Almeida, 2020; Pitts & Guerguis, 2021). Implementing social protection systems, developing robust infrastructures, and creating equitable climate financing mechanisms are essential for building resilience in communities that are deeply affected by climate impacts.

In summary, Mozambique's recovery from Cyclone Idai highlights the complex interplay of social, economic, and environmental factors that shape disaster response and recovery. Moving forward, prioritising measures that address issues of equity, resilience, and sustainability will be crucial for improving disaster preparedness and ensuring that marginalised communities receive the support they need in the aftermath of climate-induced disasters. 

4.3       Health, Equity, and Public Blind Spots

Climate change exacerbates existing health inequalities, primarily affecting the most vulnerable segments of the population, including children, the elderly, the disabled, and the economically disadvantaged (Boven et al., 2018). Heat-related illnesses, respiratory issues linked to air pollution, and food insecurity are just a few examples of how climate change worsens public health outcomes. These vulnerable populations face increased susceptibility to health issues, yet health systems and urban planning often fail to incorporate their needs into adaptation strategies (Friis-Hansen, 2017).

Research indicates that a public health focus that does not prioritise the unique vulnerabilities of these groups can inadvertently perpetuate existing inequities and exacerbate health disparities (Montfort, 2025). Oversight underscores the need for a comprehensive approach to health equity in climate adaptation policies. Policymakers must ensure that Health authorities adequately equip systems to serve vulnerable populations and that urban planning efforts actively mitigate the health-related impacts of climate change (Magistro et al., 2024). Only by addressing these public blind spots can resilience be built into healthcare infrastructures in a manner that genuinely protects those most at risk. 

4.4      London – Heatwaves and Health Inequity

London has been increasingly adapting to urban heatwaves through a variety of climate action plans. However, these strategies often inadequately address the specific vulnerabilities of at-risk populations, particularly the elderly and low-income communities, who experience higher health risks during extreme heat events (Morabito et al., 2015; Vaidyanathan et al., 2020). The consequences of neglecting these vulnerable groups are severe; without targeted support mechanisms, such as access to cool shelters and health outreach programmes, these populations face increased illnesses and mortality rates during extreme heat incidents (Vaidyanathan et al., 2020).

Research indicates that health inequities associated with climate change manifest most acutely among vulnerable groups within urban environments. The elderly, children, disabled individuals, and economically disadvantaged populations are disproportionately affected by the health impacts of climate change, including heat strokes and respiratory illnesses (Wang, 2023; Loughnan et al., 2014). Despite vulnerability, urban planning and healthcare systems typically fail to prioritise the needs of these groups in their adaptation strategies, leading to exacerbated health disparities.

For instance, several studies highlight the role of inadequate urban infrastructure in contributing to adverse health outcomes. The lack of cooling facilities and support services during heat waves particularly compromises the health and safety of low-income individuals living in urban areas. These residents often reside in buildings that are ill-equipped to handle heat extremes, lacking insulation or proper ventilation, which can elevate indoor temperatures to dangerous levels (Chen et al., 2016). Consequently, the intersection of heat vulnerability and inadequate resources creates a precarious situation for those at the margins of society, exposing them to heightened risks during heat events.

Additionally, heatwaves in urban areas expose broader gaps in housing and healthcare inequities, often linked to systemic issues such as poverty and social marginalisation. In London, the effects of climate stressors reveal stark contrasts between socioeconomic groups, as low-income neighbourhoods often have higher exposure to urban heat islands (UHIs) where Human activity significantly elevates temperature (Chen et al., 2018). These discrepancies underscore the importance of incorporating equity into urban climate planning, ensuring that adaptive strategies include measures specifically designed for the most vulnerable.

The relevance of London's heatwave responses demonstrates a critical need for policies that embed equity into adaptation strategies. Urban climate planning must take into account the diverse needs of all citizens, particularly those who are most susceptible to climate-related health risks. Effective communications about heat risks, access to cooling resources, and community engagement are essential for protecting vulnerable populations and fostering resilience (Deng et al., 2024; Stone et al., 2023).

In summary, London's experience with heatwaves illustrates the urgent need for comprehensive urban climate adaptation strategies that prioritise equity. Addressing the disproportionate impacts of extreme heat on vulnerable groups is not only a public health imperative but also a fundamental aspect of fostering social justice in climate action. Future urban planning efforts must focus on creating inclusive and resilient infrastructures that safeguard the health and well-being of all residents, particularly those most at risk from the increasing challenges posed by climate change. 

4.5       Policy Gaps and the Free-Rider Fallacy

The notion that nations refrain from taking climate action due to fears of being "free riders" is a commonly held belief; however, it often oversimplifies the reality of climate policy engagement. While some governments express apprehension about unilateral actions, many countries are already pursuing climate initiatives independently, despite the complexities of international treaties (Colgan et al., 2020; Boda & Jerneck, 2019). The real challenge lies in domestic political inertia, which hinders progress toward substantial climate interventions. Institutional fragmentation and lack of coordinated action across various sectors exacerbate these policy gaps, leading to ineffective responses to urgent climate threats (Gurney et al., 2022; Berkebile-Weinberg et al., 2024).

Exploring the motivations behind climate policy resistance reveals that political leadership and public engagement are often sources of stasis rather than free-riding. Political mechanisms and partisan dynamics play significant roles in hampering climate action; therefore, addressing these underlying barriers is crucial for advancing effective climate policies (Dayton et al., 2024; Workman et al., 2020). 

4.6       Educational and Institutional Silence

Despite the urgency of climate action, educational institutions and local governments frequently neglect to prioritise climate education in their curricula or planning frameworks. Many public health schools, city administrations, and academic programmes lack dedicated climate components, which delays the development of future leaders equipped to tackle climate-related challenges (Kristianssen & Granberg, 2021; Vraga, 2017). educational gap limits public understanding of climate issues and their implications for health, equity, and social justice, which is vital for mobilising informed citizens and empowered communities.

Enhancing climate literacy across various educational platforms is critical for equipping individuals with the knowledge necessary to engage in climate action. By integrating climate education into existing curricula and fostering interdisciplinary collaboration, institutions can better prepare future leaders to address climate challenges comprehensively (Nix et al., 2024). Moreover, promoting climate-related research initiatives can bolster understanding and support for adaptive measures within policy frameworks (Tweneboah-Koduah, 2024).

 

4.7       Media, Misinformation, and Public Apathy

Media coverage of climate change often focuses on cost, disaster, or controversy rather than solutions or hopeful narratives. Misinformation campaigns further complicate public discourse, fostering confusion or apathy towards a crucial global issue (Ullah, 2024). Recent studies suggest that the way communicators tell climate stories can significantly impact public engagement and collective action, emphasising the necessity for accessible, human-centred, and solution-oriented storytelling (Kennard & Schnakenberg, 2023; Buse et al., 2022).

To promote effective climate communication, media outlets must shift their focus towards constructive dialogues that highlight actionable solutions and foster collective responsibility. They would engage the public in climate narratives that empower rather than discourage, provoking a sense of agency and responsibility toward climate action (Smith et al., 2017). By creating a landscape where optimism prevails alongside urgency, the media can play a pivotal role in galvanising public interest and action.

In conclusion, addressing the themes outlined in Chapter 4 reveals complex layers of injustice, policy gaps, and systemic failures in the quest for climate justice. We must confront systemic failures in the quest for climate justice. By implementing equitable adaptation strategies, improving public health responses, encouraging educational reforms, and fostering constructive media narratives, decision-makers can work toward building a more just and resilient society in the face of climate change.

 

4.8      US – Fossil Fuel Lobbying and Delay Tactics

In the United States, fossil fuel companies have engaged in extensive lobbying efforts aimed at delaying or weakening climate legislation, significantly hindering climate progress. These tactics include funding think tanks, sponsoring media campaigns, and shaping political narratives to cast doubt on climate science and undermine support for climate initiatives (Franta, 2021; Al‐Rawi et al., 2021). Such lobbying operations create a considerable challenge in moving forward with essential legislative actions needed to mitigate the effects of climate change, as they foster misinformation and political resistance that distort public understanding of the climate crisis (Lewandowsky et al., 2017; Al‐Rawi et al., 2021).

The impacts of these lobbying strategies are profound and far-reaching. Misinformation campaigns heavily influence public perceptions of climate change, which serve to confuse the general populace and stymie political action (McDonnell, 2024; Lewandowsky et al., 2017). As a result, emissions remain high, and policymakers continue to stall the vital regulatory reforms needed to address the global emergency. These dynamics not only reflect vested interests obstructing climate policy but also highlight a significant barrier to effective governance and meaningful climate action (Franta, 2021; Al‐Rawi et al., 2021).

The role of the fossil fuel industry in promoting misinformation is particularly troubling, as they employ various strategies to sow discord and foster scepticism about the scientific consensus on climate change (Al‐Rawi et al., 2021; Frumhoff et al., 2015). The manipulation of information has weakened public support for climate action and contributed to polarised political debates, thereby perpetuating a cycle of inaction. As outlined in studies examining the effects of lobbying on climate legislation, the strategic narrative constructed by these interests undermines public confidence in both science and governmental accountability regarding climate issues (Lewandowsky et al., 2017; Frumhoff et al., 2015).

Moreover, it is critical to note that the real obstacles to effective climate action may not merely stem from concerns about "free riding" among nations, as is often suggested. Instead, many countries are acting independently from global treaties to implement their climate policies, underscoring a broader issue of domestic political inertia and institutional fragmentation (Dayton et al., 2024; Boda & Jerneck, 2019). Thus, addressing the disconnect between public sentiment, political action, and scientific understanding is essential for fostering a more cohesive approach to tackling climate change.

The divisive narratives propagated by fossil fuel interests highlight the necessity for counter-strategies that stress climate education and raise awareness of the realities of climate change (Lewandowsky et al., 2017; Linden et al., 2015). Building public understanding around the scientific consensus and the urgency of climate mitigation efforts is paramount, as is promoting solutions that prioritise equitable energy transition strategies (Debnath et al., 2023; McKenzie et al., 2023). Without addressing the influence of vested interests and their tactics, the potential for substantial climate progress remains impeded.

In conclusion, the case of fossil fuel lobbying in the US exemplifies the challenges faced in combating climate change when opposing interests mobilise to obstruct policy initiatives. Addressing these obstacles requires exposing and countering misleading narratives, fostering an informed public discourse, and advancing governance frameworks that prioritise equitable climate solutions. Ultimately, proactive engagement is essential to navigate the complexities surrounding climate action and achieve meaningful progress toward sustainability and resilience.

 

5         Breaking the Web – Action, Solidarity, and Shared Futures

5.1      Rethinking Communication for Action

To galvanise broad support for climate action, climate communication shifts must focus from technical jargon and abstract data to emphasise real-life co-benefits such as health, jobs, equity, and safety. Research highlights the effectiveness of framing climate change in ways that resonate with public priorities, reinforcing the idea that addressing climate change positively impacts individual and community welfare (Thaker & Floyd, 2021). For instance, establishing narratives that connect climate action with enhanced public health outcomes, such as improved air quality and reduced heat-related illnesses, can foster greater public engagement and commitment (Lioubimtseva et al., 2024). By utilising vivid and relatable narratives that build connections across diverse communities, climate communicators can cultivate a more inclusive dialogue around action against climate change.

Moreover, effective climate communication must prioritise outreach to marginalised populations who are often disproportionately affected by climate impacts yet frequently overlooked in mainstream narratives. Engaging these communities in the conversation creates opportunities for authentic participation and empowerment, ensuring that People intertwine their lived experiences through shared struggles and resilience with the broader climate dialogue (Lioubimtseva et al., 2024). By widening the scope of communication efforts and pinpointing shared values, it becomes possible to build momentum for climate initiatives that are equitable, productive, and ultimately more effective (Lucas & Davison, 2018).

 

5.2      Sweden – Communicating Climate with Clarity

Sweden has emerged as a leader in climate communication, focusing on the use of plain language and citizen-centred messaging in its climate policies. The approach emphasises the co-benefits of climate action, linking it to personal health, economic well-being, and social equity (Karlsson et al., 2023). By prioritising clear and relatable communication over technical jargon, the Swedish government has successfully engaged broader segments of the population, thereby increasing public awareness and understanding of climate issues. Has proven crucial in sustaining political will for more ambitious and inclusive climate policies (Utami, 2023).

In Sweden, government outreach has effectively conveyed that climate action is not just an environmental concern but also a pathway to improve public health and create jobs. For example, initiatives that promote clean energy not only help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also improve air quality, which has direct health benefits for citizens (Karlsson et al., 2023). Such messaging has mobilised public support and reinforced the notion that addressing climate change can enhance quality of life while contributing to sustainable development.

Importantly, strategy recognises the need for equitable communication that encompasses the diverse experiences and concerns of various communities. Addressing the specific needs of vulnerable populations, such as low-income families and marginalised groups, ensures that everyone can participate in the climate dialogue and access the benefits of climate action (Utami, 2023). By embedding inclusivity into their communication efforts, Swedish policymakers highlight the importance of participatory approaches to fostering a sense of ownership and commitment among citizens.

Moreover, the success of Sweden's communication strategy demonstrates that effective climate action requires ongoing engagement and education. Ensuring that the public is informed allows for more meaningful discussions about climate policies, making it easier to garner support for necessary changes in both individual behaviour and government action (Karlsson et al., 2023). As Sweden continues to refine its climate policies, clear communication will remain a fundamental aspect of its strategy to build a resilient and socially equitable future.

In summary, Sweden's proactive stance on climate communication illustrates the value of framing climate action in ways that resonate with the public. By emphasising co-benefits, fostering inclusivity, and using straightforward messaging, Swedish leaders have created a model for effective climate engagement. The approach should serve as a model for other nations grappling with the complexities and urgency of climate action, reinforcing the idea that communication should be a strategic asset within policy frameworks and not an afterthought.

 

5.3      Co-benefits and Integrated Strategies

Innovative climate policies have the potential to yield multiple gains across areas such as public health, economic growth, and environmental sustainability. Integrating co-benefits into climate investments, such as cleaner air, active transportation systems, and green jobs, can significantly enhance community resilience (Zougmoré et al., 2019; Twinomuhangi et al., 2019). However, stakeholders must take action to materialise these benefits; policymakers must develop climate strategies with inclusivity and justice at their core. Funds directed toward climate-related initiatives must prioritise the needs of disadvantaged communities, ensuring that the co-benefits of climate action are widely distributed and accessible to all (Selvey et al., 2022).

In the context of urban planning, co-benefits can translate into more resilient cities that are prepared to face the impacts of climate change. Investments in green infrastructure, for example, not only mitigate the heat island effect but also provide recreational spaces that improve community well-being (Lioubimtseva et al., 2024). Public messaging centred around these co-benefits can galvanise support for climate action while addressing systemic inequities, ultimately creating a more cooperative and cohesive approach to climate resilience (Entradas et al., 2019).

 

5.4      Barcelona – Superblocks Urban Redesign

Barcelona's Superblocks project represents a transformative urban redesign initiative aimed at reducing traffic congestion and prioritising pedestrian-friendly environments and green spaces. Approach reclaims streets for community use, enhancing environmental quality and urban liveability (Camerín, 2023). By employing innovative urban design principles, the Superblocks initiative seeks to create areas that encourage walking and cycling while concurrently improving mental and physical health through enhanced access to parks and recreational spaces.

Data indicate that air pollution levels have dropped in areas implementing the model and that walkability has notably increased, which can lead to heightened physical activity among residents (Puig‐Ribera et al., 2022). Researchers have linked improved access to green spaces to enhanced mental well-being and increased social interactions among residents, fostering community cohesion. Furthermore, the design of Superblocks increases resilience to heat stress by providing shaded areas and reducing urban heat islands, which is particularly important in the context of rising temperatures linked to climate change (Magrinyà et al., 2023).

 The initiative exemplifies an integrated urban strategy that delivers multiple co-benefits, highlighting the importance of equity in urban climate adaptation. Notably, the success of the Superblocks project lies in its capacity to afford all demographic groups, particularly marginalised populations, better access to health-promoting environments (Ciommi et al., 2018). Integrating community feedback into the planning process has been essential to ensure that diverse needs and preferences are considered, ultimately leading to more inclusive urban spaces (Ciommi et al., 2018).

As Barcelona's Superblocks model showcases, urban design can be a powerful tool for climate adaptation; These examples offer lessons that communities can replicate worldwide. The project not only demonstrates the importance of enhancing urban liveability but also emphasises the need for climate-resilient infrastructure that prioritises public health and community interaction. The principles established through the Superblocks can guide other cities in developing their solutions to similar climate-related challenges, proving that Planners and communities can achieve sustainable urbanisation through innovative planning and active engagement (Olalla et al., 2017).

In conclusion, Barcelona's expansion of Superblocks serves as a compelling case for how urban redesign can simultaneously address climate change while improving public health and fostering social interactions. The initiative underscores the necessity of embedding equity within urban climate strategies and demonstrates that thoughtful urban planning can yield significant co-benefits for communities facing the challenges of environmental and health inequities. 

5.5       Building Alliances and Collective Leadership

The complex challenges posed by climate change necessitate collaborative efforts that transcend governmental boundaries. Sustainable solutions require cross-sector cooperation—including engagement with civil society, Indigenous communities, youth movements, and local governments (Thomas et al., 2017). Public policy cannot operate in isolation; Instead, leaders must form alliances that combine the expertise of diverse stakeholders and resources of diverse actors united by a shared vision for climate resilience.

Shared leadership models can foster smarter, more grounded outcomes that reflect the interests and needs of various constituencies (Henshall et al., 2022). By incorporating input from a diverse array of stakeholders, including marginalised and under-represented voices, Policymakers can design policies to serve everyone effectively. Overall, successful adaptation and mitigation efforts hinge on establishing networks of solidarity that leverage collective action and knowledge to advance climate solutions (Roberge et al., 2021). 

5.6      Cochabamba, Bolivia – Water Governance Reclaimed

The protests surrounding the privatisation of water services in Cochabamba, Bolivia, in the year 2000 marked a significant turning point in the region's approach to water governance. In the face of extensive public backlash, the citizen movement prompted the Bolivian government to reclaim public control over water resources, democratising governance structures that had previously favoured private interests (Masoumpoor et al., 2015; Clark et al., 2023). A transformative experience illustrates the power of social mobilisation and community agency, positioning water governance as a critical arena for environmental justice.

Following the recovery of public control, significant improvements in water access and community participation ensued. The restructured governance system has made water services more accountable and responsive to citizens, effectively reversing inequities imposed during the period of privatisation (Areia et al., 2021; Nässén et al., 2024). Research indicates that communities have experienced enhanced access to water services, signalling a shift toward more equitable distribution and management of a critical resource that is integral to public health and socioeconomic well-being (Masoumpoor et al., 2015).

The experience of Cochabamba is particularly relevant in highlighting the intersection of climate justice and collective action. As communities grapple with climate-related challenges, including shifting precipitation patterns and increased risk of water scarcity, the proactive reclamation of water governance becomes emblematic of resistance against corporate exploitation and the prioritisation of community needs. In a way, the local control of water stands as a testament to grassroots activism's potential to engender transformative change within affected societies (Acharibasam, 2022; Sivle et al., 2021).

Furthermore, the implications of Cochabamba's movement extend beyond national borders, providing a replicable model for similar struggles worldwide. As many regions continue to confront the adverse impacts of climate change, the Bolivian example stresses the importance of local governance frameworks that are equitable and inclusive. It embodies the principles of climate justice, asserting that access to essential resources like water is a fundamental human right that must be defended against privatisation and exploitation (Capstick et al., 2017).

In conclusion, the journey toward reclaiming water governance in Cochabamba underscores the critical role that community-led approaches play in fostering climate justice and resilience. By reinforcing the importance of participatory governance and equitable access to resources, Cochabamba serves as a beacon for other communities facing similar challenges. Future climate policies and governance frameworks must take heed of such grassroots successes, ensuring that vulnerable populations are empowered to influence decisions that directly affect their lives.

 

6         Conclusion: From Scarcity to Solidarity

Systems fail when they do not adequately respond to changing conditions or the needs of their constituents; in the context of climate change, this can lead to scarcity becoming a crisis. However, with a framework emphasising equity, coordination, and clear communication, what begins as scarcity can become a catalyst for solidarity (BAYILI & Badolo, 2024). By fostering a network of collaborative solutions, societies can transcend conflicts and work towards resilient futures. As climate challenges escalate, experts emphasise the urgency for action; what is needed is a paradigm shift where delay gives way to concerted efforts for meaningful change (Rimmer et al., 2023).

The lessons of Syria, Dhaka, Cochabamba, and South Africa show that where governance fails, scarcity multiplies injustice. However, they also prove that when communities reclaim power, design inclusive systems, and act early, communities can transform vulnerability into resilience. 

6.1       A Call to Act Now

The cost of inaction on climate change is not theoretical—it has tangible consequences that are escalating in intensity (Safrina et al., 2022). The decade demands bold choices, emphasising justice while rejecting distractions that halt progress. The time for transformative action is now, not in the distant future. Stakeholders must prioritise equitable solutions that embrace sustainability, foster resilience, and respond to underlying inequities; the future depends on choices made today (Masefield et al., 2021; Darwishean et al., 2024).

Act Before the Threads Break

 The web is still ours to untangle—or strengthen. Share the article. Use it to spark dialogue in the city, the classroom, and the government. If we act with courage, empathy, and fairness, we can prevent the crisis from becoming a collapse.

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In summary, the actions and strategies outlined in the chapter highlight the various dimensions of climate change response. By rethinking communication, embracing co-benefits, building alliances, and prioritising equity, society can transform its approach to climate action and ensure a more resilient future for all.